After a round of speculation, aluminum prices gradually return to rational. Shanghai aluminum broke the previous highs and lows of the past three months in early November and started to go down continuously. November 30 Shanghai aluminum broke down 14,500 yuan / ton, the lowest hit 14340 yuan / ton, hit a new low in nearly 4 months. November 30 afternoon on the aluminum limited production of rumors boosted the main Shanghai aluminum from 14,370 yuan / ton in the vicinity pulled up to 14,700 yuan / ton in the vicinity.
Why aluminum prices continue to leak since the end of September? SMM think the main reason:
First, earlier, Henan, Shanxi, Shandong, less than expected heating season, has become an important reason for the recent suppression of aluminum prices.
Second, downstream processing enterprises have not seen strong growth in consumption, the recent weakness.
Third, in the continued increase in electrolytic aluminum production capacity, aluminum inventories also hit record highs, which is suppressed aluminum price has been an important factor. Recently, despite the hampered transport in Xinjiang and the difficulty of recovery in a short period of time, the inventories in the Mainland have only slightly declined. It is estimated that after the transportation in Xinjiang resumes, the inventories are still a big mountain in the price of aluminum if the terminal and downstream consumption are not good.
4. Recently, the U.S. Trump administration launched a survey on anti-dumping and countervailing duties on China's alloy aluminum flakes. The recent U.S. trade barriers to China have also exacerbated the market worries that the export of aluminum products in China will be suppressed and exacerbated the aluminum market short Atmosphere.
Fifth, the futures market more than expected to buy the expected to throw the actual operation, expected in the early speculation profitable good, some long positions in profit-taking options.